Pittsburgh Pension Mess Makes Wall Street Journal

PSERS is not the only pension system that is seeking solutions. The Wall Street Journal has this article about the mess that is the Pittsburgh City pension.

From the article:

Pittsburgh's city council nixed a deal this week to lease its parking assets to a consortium led by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Instead, the council is proposing that the city's parking authority issue a 30-year bond and pay it off with parking-rate increases. Part of the proceeds would go to the pension plan.

Taxpayers in Pittsburgh should be absolutely outraged at the possibility of this unsustainable plan. This would mean the City of Pittsburgh would be borrowing money to pay its pension obligations. In the short term this might seem like a solution, but in the long term it will bankrupt Pittsburgh, if Pittsburgh is not bankrupt already. Floating 30-year bonds to fund liabilities without addressing the true problem of actual pension obligations is fiscal insanity. Mayor Luke Ravenstahl thankfully seems to have his head screwed on straight on this issue as he has announced that he does not support this plan.

Thanks for reading.

James Fraasch

Rise in Unemployment Rate Likely

A recent Gallup poll finds that the unemployment rate reported by the Federal Bureau of Labor and Statistics has been understating the unemployment rate. Gallup (and others) believe that shortly after the November mid-term elections the BLS will start to show the unemployment rate tick up. I am not at all suggesting this is some type of election year conspiracy, it's just that at some point the numbers cannot be managed anymore.

Please see the article by Gallup here. From the article:

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.

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The government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup's modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday's ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government's national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup's mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.

It is interesting that both Gallup and ADP (which tracks only private company payroll data) see the same trends. Unfortunately, these trends are not picked up by the BLS and therefore the unemployment rate will most likely face a downward adjustment after the fact. This is standard operating procedure for the BLS. They revise their numbers every January and July.

This data from Gallup (and ADP for that matter) are just another way to suggest that this has been no ordinary recession. While the NBER has said the recession ended last summer (due largely to increased government intervention), the unemployment picture suggests we still have a long way to go.

It will be interesting to see how this chart from Calculated Risk changes in the coming months. I don't think we have seen the peak unemployment rate for this recession.



At last month's Audit Finance Committee meeting we looked at our Earned Income Receipts and they have been declining for two straight years. In addition to that worrisome development, we have seen a significant decline in Real Estate Transfer tax over the past 3-4 months. At Thursday's meeting we will go over the more recent Real Estate transfer tax receipts and talk about what, if anything, the trends mean.

Thanks for reading.

James

The Recession in Pittsburgh- Allegheny Institute Policy Brief

I received this interesting update from the Allegheny Institute in my inbox this morning. It paints the current picture of the state of recession in Pittsburgh (posted with permission from the author).

Policy Brief

An electronic publication of

The Allegheny Institute for Public Policy

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October 6, 2010 Volume 10, Number 55

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Has Recession Loosened Its Grip on the Pittsburgh Region?

Is the recession loosening its grip on the Pittsburgh area? According to the latest payroll employment data for August, the answer may be “yes”. August marked the third straight month that total private jobs showed a year-over-year increase. The August 2010 figure of just over one million jobs bests the August 2009 figure of 994,300 by more than one-half percent. This follows on the heels of small year to year increases in June and July. While relatively miniscule, these gains represent the first positive upswing in the year-over-year payroll employment since October 2008.

The seven-county area showed an increase of 5,800 total private jobs from August 2009 to August 2010. Which sectors led the growth in jobs?

Leading the way, professional and business services posted a pickup of 3,800 jobs in the August year-over-year tally. The biggest gainer in this sector was administrative and support services with a rise of 2,900 jobs. These are clerical, security, and other office administration functions. Hiring support personnel might be a signal that companies see the end of the recession and are willing to hire support staff.

Construction is also notable for meaningful job improvement with 2,000 jobs added from August 2009 to August 2010. Considering that most major projects in the area—such as the new PNC Tower and Consol Energy Center—have been completed, this increase is somewhat unexpected. It’s possible that road and bridge projects are propping up construction employment. It could be also attributed in part to construction and site preparation of Marcellus Shale gas drilling sites that use construction companies to do some of the work. While these gas drilling sites are not common in Allegheny County, they are plentiful in Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties which are part of the Pittsburgh MSA.

Nonetheless, it is important to bear in mind that the 57,100 construction jobs in August are still seven percent below the 61,400 recorded in August 2008.

What has happened to jobs in the mining and logging sector of the economy? This sector, which includes coal mining as well as natural gas extraction, gained 400 jobs in August compared to the twelve month earlier level. Back in August 2005 there were 5,000 employees in this sector. By August 2010 jobs had risen by 900 —just under 20 percent. The Marcellus Shale gas formation may be a great source of employment in years to come, but the types of jobs created will be dispersed throughout various sectors such as construction, manufacturing and transportation as well as mining, making the jobs impact of the gas drilling hard to pin down with great accuracy.

Other sectors with large jumps in year-over-year employment include “retail trade” with 1,800 more jobs and “educational services” gaining 1,500. The “health care and social assistance” sector added another 1,000 people to payrolls led by 600 new jobs in “social services”. As we have mentioned in previous Policy Briefs, the social services subsector has been steadily adding jobs, growing more than 50 percent since 2000. But keep in mind that social services is very heavily dependent upon government spending and typically does not offer many high paying jobs—and therefore is not a good indicator of economic growth or labor market strength.

While some sectors showed year-over-year job gains, several sectors did not fare very well. Manufacturing continues to shed jobs as another 2,000 were lost between August 2009 and August 2010. The recent total of 84,900 manufacturing jobs is the lowest August count in at least two decades. Meantime, “financial activities” shed 1,700 jobs and the “government” sector lost 1,300 with local governmental education jobs dropping by 700.

Overall, payroll employment data seem to suggest the recession is loosening its grip on the Pittsburgh area—albeit very slowly and unevenly. Some sectors are showing signs of an upturn while others are still losing jobs or remaining flat—not an uncommon picture for the early stages of an economic recovery.

Clearly, the stability and recession resistance shown by education and health related jobs together with the huge decades long decline in the proportion of the area’s jobs in manufacturing and the absence of a housing boom have helped dampen the region’s employment losses during the current recession. Still, that is little consolation in light of the fact that employment remains well below levels reached in 2000.

More PSERS Pension Reform

I check in on Paul Fisher's blog over at PrideandPromise.com from time to time. He has been terrific on giving updates on PSERS. I headed over there yesterday only to find out that he resigned his school director seat "To regain his first amendment rights". Good to know, however, that he intends to keep the site going.

He added a great article from CapitolWire that analyzes the latest attempts to reform the Pennsylvania State Employees Retirement System. There is still a lot of confusion about what is happening at this level. That article sort of sets the record straight. The fact is that there is still a lot of negotiating to get done. Some people want to pay what we owe sooner than others, but the thing to take away from the negotiations is that nobody thinks there is a magic bullet. The only thing that will significantly change the PSERS cost curve is significantly positive returns on the PSERS portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate and other investments. PSERS projections are based on 7.5 or 8% annual returns in a diversified portfolio. Like I have said before, if someone ever promises you 8% annual returns, LOCK IT UP because it is almost impossible to do.

Thanks for reading and please be sure to check out the CapitolWire article. It is full of good info as well as all the names of the players in the PSERS reform game.

James